Football

Gleitman’s Gameday Guide: Purdue Week

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Welcome to Gleitman’s Gameday Guide, presented by Steamboat Dry Goods, a quick-hitting resource for fans on Buckeye Scoop as they prepare for the upcoming Ohio State game and the national slate of college football each week.

This guide will include my five players who must step up each week for the Buckeyes to win, score prediction and how it plays out, and “brave and bold” predictions for the upcoming contest. Additionally, I’ll look at the national and Big Ten games to let you know my picks (straight up and vs. the spread), as well as who I am picking as my four teams to advance to the College Football Playoff each week.

This week, Gleitman’s Gameday Guide looks at the Buckeyes next game vs. Purdue, as well as the rest of college football in week 11.

FIVE PLAYERS WHO MUST STEP UP FOR OHIO STATE TO WIN

The Buckeyes are a 21-point favorites in this one, which is a little bit higher than some thought after the close win over Nebraska and the Boilermakers’ big win over Michigan State. Here are five players that need to step up to ensure Ohio State advances to 9-1 and keeps their B1G and CFP hopes alive:

  • QB CJ Stroud: Against Penn State he didn’t do anything exceptional but didn’t make many errors either. Against Nebraska he turned it over twice and missed a few opportunities. He can’t just excel against bad teams, Ohio State is going to need him to play well down the stretch here.
  • CB Denzel Burke:You can probably just put all three corners here, but we spotlight Burke as it will be key for Ohio State to limit David Bell. I won’t be surprised if a more veteran Cam Brown gets this assignment, but this will be a big test for the true freshman Burke when he is matched up with one of the country’s best receivers.
  • RB TreVeyon Henderson: I don’t see the rushing struggles the last couple of weeks as his fault,but somehow Henderson needs to get back to form this week (and the remaining games on the schedule).
  • LT Nicholas Petit-Frere: He’s been dealing with family stuff and a minor injury, but he hasn’t been great the past two weeks. Ohio State really needs him (and the rest of the OL) to step up. Paris Johnson is 1A here.
  • DE Tyreke Smith: When he is “on”, Ohio State’s pass rush is just different. He showed that last week, and getting after Aidan O’Connel will go a long way in helping the Buckeyes win this game.

GAME PREDICTION

This will be covered in our weekly staff picks, but I want to provide it here as well:

I love the spot Ohio State is in for this game. Purdue is coming off a big upset win where they exhausted a lot of energy in knocking off Michigan State. Ohio State is coming off two lackluster performances, especially on the offensive side of the ball, which is Ryan Day’s baby. This game absolutely screams “Ohio State is going to smoke out Purdue” to me.

But I am a bit hesitant to go all in there. I think Purdue’s scheme and passing attack are a good match-up against an Ohio State back seven that is mediocre against the air attack, especially in the middle of the field. I also think Purdue has a stout defensive line, led by George Karlaftis, that could continue to give the Buckeyes some trouble in the ground game again.

Adding everything up, I think that while the OSU defense may struggle a bit more than they have in a while, the offense is going to get back on track. I’ve heard Ryan Day believes he “found a fix” for the run game, and I think the Ohio State passing game will be on point with a re-found running game. Purdue is feisty, but they are not sneaking up on anyone here and they just don’t have anywhere near the talent that the Buckeyes do. Give me the Buckeyes in a game where the offense carries them, but the defense is a bit more frustrating throughout the contest.


Ohio State 52 Purdue 27

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BRAVE AND BOLD PREDICTIONS

While the score prediction is pretty straight forward, here are three “brave and bold” predictions each week that I’ll make about things that happen in the game:

  • TreVeyon Henderson gets back on track. I think this will be a big one for the running game, and I think Henderson puts up his second highest rushing total of the season, which would be somewhere over 152 yards and somewhere under 277. Let’s say 174 for the true freshman on 16 carries.
  • The defense will score a touchdown. I am going to say Steele Chambers with a pick six here.
  • Purdue scores on a trick play. I think Jeff Brohm will have some things up his sleeve and I am predicting the Boilermakers score once on a trick play.

THE PICKS

Every week I will pick every Big Ten game and a few select national games both straight up and against the spread (LW SU: 12-3; LW ATS: 11-4; TOTAL SU: 98-49; TOTAL ATS: 73-74)

  • Purdue at Ohio State (-21): Ohio State Straight Up & Against The Spread
  • Michigan at Penn State (+1.5): Michigan SU & ATS
  • Northwestern at Wisconsin (-24.5): Wisconsin SU & ATS
  • Rutgers at Indiana (-7): IU SU & RU ATS
  • Minnesota at Iowa (-5): Iowa SU & Minnesota ATS
  • Maryland at Michigan State: MSU SU & ATS
  • Oklahoma at Baylor (+5.5): Oklahoma SU & Baylor ATS
  • Georgia at Tennessee (+20): UGA SU & ATS
  • Texas A&M at Ole Miss (+2.5): TAMU SU & ATS
  • Notre Dame at Virginia (+5.5): UVA SU & ATS
  • NC State at Wake Forest (-2): NCST SU & ATS
  • Arkansas at LSU (+2.5): Arkansas SU & ATS
  • TCU at Oklahoma State (-12): OKST SU & ATS
  • Nevada at San Diego State: Nevada SU & ATS
  • Washington State at Oregon (-14): Oregon SU & Wazzu ATS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF PICKS

The second College Football Playoff rankings came out this week and the top six in order were Georgia, Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State, Cincinnati, and Michigan. But here are my weekly rankings for the CFP every week heading into the slate of games:

  1. Georgia: Continue to prove they are the clear number one. (Last Week: 1)
  2. Ohio State: Again, they didn’t look great against Nebraska, but with Oklahoma on a bye and Cincinnati + Alabama looking “meh” as well, they hold. (Last Week: 2)
  3. Oklahoma: Had a bye, and they hold at three. (Last Week: 3)
  4. Cincinnati: Almost lost to Tulsa. They are hanging by a thread here. (Last Week: 4)
  5. Alabama: Big time scare against LSU. I am not sold on Bama yet. (Last Week: 5)
  6. Oregon: Maybe they should be higher on this list, but I still feel like they would lose head-to-head to all of the teams ahead of them, maybe other than UC (but they are undefeated). Michigan State is at 7, Michigan is at 8, Notre Dame is at 9, and Oklahoma State is at 10 for me. (Last Week: NR)

Be sure to check out the Buckeye Scoop Staff Picks feature this week to learn how you can win a prize pack giveaway from Steamboat Dry Goods by predicting the score of the Ohio State game!

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